I’m a flash developer.
Though I’ve always taken the claims that 98% of internet enabled desktops have the Flash plug-in. I’ve seen this marketing babble get run a few times now in regards to Apollo vs. Silverlight and in general when talking about the ubiquity of the Flash family of products (Flash, Flash Lite, Flex and now Apollo).
Regarding Apollo, how does “98%” of the internet having Flash installed make any difference to the (at this point in time) 0% of the general public that have the Apollo runtime installed… I just don’t see the connection.
What is interesting me about Apollo is not so much the ability to create something for the web (ie. Flex) and be able to deploy it to the desktop (at least on Mac and Windows XP and Vista) but how Adobe intend on getting the install base of Apollo up to make it a viable solution to recommend to customers and clients. Time will tell what strategy they have, but considering Vista doesn’t come with Flash (or the Apollo runtime for that matter) coupled with the distinct possibility of Microsoft making Silverlight (et al) some form of necessary Windows update, I think Adobe has it’s work cut out for it.
For the record, I’m rooting for Adobe.